Coming implosion and disintegration of Pakistan

Updated: Dec 3, 2021


Pakistan a land carved out of India in 1947 to provide a separate homeland to India's Muslims , unwilling to remain in a Hindu majority secular democracy.


The land until its formation had been home to the oldest surviving civilisation in the world.

The people innovative, sturdy and hardworking and the land once rich with fertile lands, mineral riches, culture, arts and science is now a pariah state with no money, credibility, respect, friends nor partners.


Pakistan state as we know it, is staring at an existential crisis.

Food scarcity, no fuel even for cooking, power generation and transportation the wheels of the economy are slowly but certainly grinding to a halt. A corrupt and dysfunctional government whose ministers and top government officials spend all their time on television talk shows rather than governance is not helping as is prime minister Imran Khan's open conflict with the military establishment (the real power in Pakistan).


How did a country that was a key partner of America and the West for decades, supported Pakistan with the best of technology and abundant financing, get transformed from one of the few rising star countries in early 1950's fall into such a terrible state?


The first is its makeup.

Pakistan State, is an artificial construct where numerous groups of people lumped together simply because they are Muslims, with nothing common between them. All things artificial fail the test of time and challenges and simply crumbles as is happening now in Pakistan, and in many former colonies where colonial powers drew lines on maps and created new countries by carving out or clubbing people together. The leaders sought to unite the country through Islam, but which Islam? There is Islam and Islam with 73 different sects of Islam nearly all of them violently hostile to one another.


The idea of Pakistan.

Jinnah a brilliant lawyer and a terrible statesman actually wrenched Pakistan out from India, but was unable to give it the guidance necessary to make it a viable state. Without a national narrative, Pakistan defined itself by being anti India, and without the requisite character, capacity or capability had delusions of becoming the leader of the Muslim world.


Economy.

Pakistan continued to work on the Zamindari (feudal) system where virtually all the fertile land of Pakistan was directly or indirectly controlled by 200 very very large landowners. In a country where even today 80% of the economy is agrarian, this is a big deal. Almost all political, judicial, social, military, business, government, media leaders are mostly from these 200 families. The bonds strengthened by inter marriages and business alliances. The Pakistan state is just the feeding bowl for these all powerful Pakistani elites. Every transaction private or governmental involves a kickback to one or more of these groups.


The Pakistan army has its own business group 'The Fauji foundation' which is one of the largest business group within Pakistan. You name it and they have a commanding presence in that sector of Pakistan's economy.


Misuse of Islam

Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte often remarked, "Religion is excellent stuff for keeping common people quiet." The name 'Islam' itself means submission, the people of Pakistan believed they were destined to serve Allah and thus submitted to the worst sort of individual depravation. They obeyed their corrupt, oppressive and dysfunctional government and rulers all for the sake of their religion which was basically a big lie told to them with the help of Mullahs.


In a bid to obtain strategic depth in Afghanistan and to bleed its arch enemy India to death. Pakistan choice to use the strategy of asymmetrical warfare based on using terrorism. As a result Pakistan has become the terror factory of the world.

Over past 30 years numerous acts of terror in the world by Muslim extremist individuals or group can be traced to Pakistan for its role in motivating, providing resources or training to the terrorist/s.


Pakistan cheated and backstabbed every single partner or benefactor be it Europe, America Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. As a result all these very powerful countries have turned their backs on Pakistan.


Pakistan a country that was all along surviving on the alms and aid given by these former benefactors, who have stopped providing aid. Under the leadership of its incompetent and egocentric prime minister Imran Khan, an already fragile Pakistan's situation has deteriorated rapidly.


Imran forgot that he was a leader anointed by the military establishment in a rigged election, and under instructions from Rawalpindi supported by religious groups, the executive, judiciary and media. He got carried away and began to try free himself from the leash of the Army.


Imran's courting and support of extremist religious group such as the TTP (Tehrik -e- Taliban Pakistan), and TLP (Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan), with the promise of main streaming them if they secretly agreed to enter into an electoral alliance with his PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) outfit. Agreements have thus been signed by the Imran government with all these outfits but details not made public citing national security concerns.

 

Why I predict implosion and disintegration of Pakistan?

In addition to the above one should consider the following.

  • Pakistan's long standing activities to claim leadership of the Islamic world particularly under the leadership of Imran Khan has alienated everyone outside Pakistan. They forgot that they live in an integrated and complex world where it is not religion but economics that provide the means to keep a country afloat and safe.

  • The Pakistan economy has been deteriorating rapidly and now in shambles. Imran Khan went on television and announced to the world that there is no money to run the government. Worse they do not see the prospect of receiving meaningful funds from any source.

  • The tax base which is one of the main source of funding for the government is small, because most of the economy is in the informal sector and the business mafia in the formal sector in collusion with corrupt government officials indulge in large scale tax evasion.

  • Pakistan has survived due to the largesse of aid from the Arab Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, America and Europe, and foreign remittances from Pakistanis working overseas.

  • Its an agrarian economy (80%) but yet has to import food.

  • Pakistan has a gigantic white elephant in the form of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC project of numerous discarded and refurbished Chinese coal plants. The energy sector investment of about US$ 33 billion (80% financed by Pakistan) is lying closed because it the selling price of power is too high and they rely on imported coal as fuel for which Pakistan has no foreign exchange. One could write them off as unviable projects. Pakistan has spent huge amounts of money on many such opaque projects.

  • Pakistan officially spends an astronomical 16% of its annual budget on defence/offence.

  • It has foreign exchange to cover less 30 days of imports.

  • Its external borrowings have reached US$ 116 billion, and Pakistan's income is so low that it cannot even pay the interest on this debt today and for the foreseeable future. Most of the loans have been rolled over and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the lender of last resort to whom Pakistan has gone 23 times to seek financial assistance now raised its hands finding it impractical to lend them more money. The same is with The World Bank and The Asian Development Bank.

  • Pakistan is in a debt trap situation. Pakistan has borrowed heavily from China (approx. US$ 60 billion) at astronomical rates of 6% and higher and US$ 4,2 billion from Saudi Arabia at 4%.

Last but probably the most important is that all the provinces of Pakistan other than Punjab are restive and the people very very unhappy and angry. And a hated government does not last long. The dysfunctional government is despised and Pakistan is tottering on the brink.


(There are numerous other factors that would take too long to enumerate.)


According to the highly respected and feared Indian National Security Advisor Shri. Ajit Doval, since the second world war 90% of all states that have disintegrated are due to internal troubles and not from external aggression. How can a broke and lonely Pakistan with too many critical internal problems and fracture lines be an exception?

" .... despite the wishes of the US, India, China or the rest of the world to see a stable and prosperous Pakistan, it might still implode. ......... the button of self-destruction might have already been pressed."

~ General JJ Singh Former chief of the Army Staff, (A Soldier's General)


There is one major concern that should the Pakistan state of 220 million population collapse, then what will be the state of the huge arsenal of nuclear bombs that Pakistan has in its possession?


What will the world led by America and supported by India do?

Even Allah might find it difficult to save the people of the 'land of the pure' from themselves.


 

Interesting links:

Guru Wonder:

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South Asia Analysis Group - Tumblr - Twitter


#AjitDoval #America #CPEC #DebtTrap #disintegration #loans #JJSingh#implosion #ImranKhan #Islam #Pakistan #SaudiArabia


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